Archive for category: Pet Market

As we continue to drill ever deeper into the demographic Pet spending data from the US BLS, we have now reached the level of individual Industry segments. We will start with Pet Food, the largest and arguably most influential of all. We have noted the trendy nature of Pet Food Spending – 2 years up then spending goes flat or turns downward for a year. This pattern began in 1997 but has become more pronounced since 2003. After the dip in 2016, Food spending increased by $4.6B in 2017 due to a deeper market penetration of super premium foods. We then expected a small increase in 2018 but what we got was a $2.27B decrease (-7.3%). This was likely due to the reaction to the FDA warning on grain free dog food. A pattern of over 20 years was broken by 1 statement. Let’s take a closer look.

First, we’ll see which groups were most responsible for the bulk of Pet Food spending and the $2.27B drop. The first chart details the biggest pet food spenders for each of 10 demographic categories. It shows their share of CU’s, share of pet Food spending and their spending performance (Share of spending/share of CU’s). 9 of the groups are the same as Total Pet. However, Pet Food spending by Age group has become more balanced and skewed slightly older. The categories are presented in the order that reflects their share of Total Pet Spending. This highlights the differences in importance. In Pet Food the # of earners is far less important while Marriage matters more. Also, while Income is still the highest performing demographic characteristic, it carries less weight in Food spending. Another big difference is that Total Pet had 6 groups performing at or above 120%. Pet Food had only 4. This indicates that Pet Food spending and Pet ownership is spread more evenly across demographic segments. Pet Products also had only 4 groups over 120%. This shows the influence of the Pet Food Segment which still accounts for 59% of Pet Products $ and 37% of all Pet Spending.

1. Race/Ethnic – White, not Hispanic (83.2%) – down from 86.6%. This large group accounts for the vast majority of spending in every segment. Like 7 other big groups, their performance fell. It was down to 120.5% from 126.4%, but this category still ranks #4 in terms of importance in Pet Food Spending demographic characteristics. While Hispanics, African Americans and Asian American account for over 31% of U.S. CU’s, they spend only 17% of Pet Food $. However, this is up from 13% last year. Pet ownership is relatively high in Hispanic households and they fueled the growth, but it remains significantly lower for African Americans and Asian Americans.
2. # in CU – 2+ people (80.3%) – down from 82.4%.The share of market for 2+ CU’s is over 80% for all segments but Services. Their overall Food performance fell from 115.6% to 113.8% largely because it was a bad year for 2 person CUs and a good year for singles. 2 Person households are still the performance leader but in the 2+ group only 4 person CU’s underperform…slightly. Their lowest performance rating is 94%, which is not bad. The old adage about Pet Spending is still true, “It just takes two.”
3. Housing – Homeowners (76.8%) – down from 80.9%. Homeownership is a huge factor in pet ownership and more pet spending. However their share dropped and their performance fell from 128.6% to 121.0%. Homeownership went from 2nd to 3rd in terms of importance for increased pet Food spending. It was an incredibly bad year for Homeowners w/o a mortgage and a good year for renters.
4. Income – Over $50K (68.7%) – down from 70.5%. Although their performance rating dropped significantly from 136.9% to 128.9%, CU income is still the single most important factor in increased Pet Food Spending. However, the over $50K income group has its smallest market share and lowest performance in the Food Segment. Since Pet Food is a “must buy” for Pet Parents, this is evidence that pet ownership is common across all income levels. The drop in share and performance was largely driven by a $2.9B decrease in spending by the $50>149K group.
5. Education – Associates Degree or Higher (62.8%) – up from 55.4%. Education regained importance in Pet Food Spending. The performance of higher education grew from 102.4% to 115.2%. All groups with a formal degree after High School spent more. The other groups, especially HS grads w/some college spent less.
6. Occupation – All Wage & Salary Earners (60.4%) – down from 67.7% – In an exact reversal of 2017, the spending of Blue-Collar workers dropped precipitously while the Self-employed spent more. Even though Tech/Sls/Clerical workers increased spending, the performance of All Wage & Salary earners fell from 110.8% to 98.9%. This big group is no longer “earning their share” in Pet Food Spending.
7. # Earners – “Everyone Works” (58.2%) – down from 58.4%. There was little change from last year as their performance also fell slightly from 101.9% to 100.7%. Income matters most in Pet Food Spending but it appears that the # of Earners matters very little, regardless of whether overall spending in the segment is up or down.
8. Age – 45>74 (60.4%) – down from 65.9%. There was a huge decrease by the 55>64-yr olds but the 35>54 yr olds also spent less. The 65>74 group increased spending by $0.92B so the “big” group became 45>74. The performance of the new group fell from 128.2% to 118.7% so “Age” category dropped out of the 120+% club.
9. CU Composition – Married Couples (61.3%) – down from 62.5%. Although they lost a little in share and their performance fell from 126.3% to 123.5%, they moved up from 5th to 2nd place due to Married CUs with children.
10. Area – Suburban (60.1%) up from 55.4%. Suburban areas are the biggest Food spenders and they gained share. Their performance jumped from 99.6% to 108.4% due to a bad year by Rural and a $1.5B gain by Suburbs >2500

9 out of 10 big spenders for Pet Food are the same as those for Total Pet and Pet Products but generally have a lower market share and performance. Pet Food spending fell $2.27B in 2018. We have strong initial indications that much of the drop came from a complete reversal of spending from the groups that upgraded in 2017, possibly due to the FDA warning. Income is still important but there are indications of more balanced spending in most demographic categories.

Now, we’ll look at 2018’s best and worst performing Pet Food spending segments in each category.

Even as we drill down to the Industry segment level, many of the best and worst performers are the ones that we would expect. In Pet Food spending, there are  7 that are different from 2017, which is 2 more than for Total Pet but the same as Pet Products. 7 of 12 winners are the same as Pet Products but all the losers match. This demonstrates the impact that the Food spending decrease had on overall Pet Products. Changes from 2017 are “boxed”. We should note:

• Income is important in every segment. However, Food is the only segment in which the winner is not $200K+. Also, every income group above $50K is performing at or above 100% in Pet Food Spending.
• # Earners – 1 Earner, 2+ CU’s took the top spot for the second consecutive year. While income is still the biggest factor, the number of earners is far less important in Pet Food than any other segment – more balanced spending.
• Occupation & Education – The winners and losers returned to more “normal” segments.
• Generation – As usual, the Boomers won, but the Millennials are no longer the worst performers – finally!
• Age – Despite a terrible year, the 55>64-yr olds finished on top. The big news is the <25 group got off the bottom.
• CU Composition – Married, Couples Only won for the 4th straight year.
• Area – Rural won again but their performance fell from 238.9% to 154.2% and they dropped from 1^st to 2^nd

It’s time to “Show you the money”. Here are segments with the biggest $ changes in Pet Food Spending.

There is 1 repeat from 2017 – the South lost again. 17 of the 24 segments (71%) flipped from 1^st to last or vice versa – talk about turmoil! 6 of the 12 categories had dual flips but we still had some surprise winners, like Millennials, 65>74 yr olds and Renters. It is at this level where the demographic uniqueness of the different industry segments truly shows up. Here are the specifics:

• Income – The winner and loser flipped in 2018.
  • Winner – $150 to $199K – Pet Food Spending: $2.83B; Up $1.08B (+62.3%)
    • 2017: $40 to $69K
  • Loser – $50 to $69K – Pet Food Spending: $3.77B; Down $1.38B (-26.8%)
    • 2017: $150 to $199K
  • Comment – Only the $150>199K and $30>39K group spent more on Food in 2018, +$2.03B. The other groups – High, Middle and Low were down -$4.3B.
• Generation – The Millennials finally earned some of their publicity with a win.
  • Winner – Millennials – Pet Food Spending: $6.04B; Up $0.99B (+19.6%)
    • 2017: Boomers
  • Loser – Boomers – Pet Food Spending: $11.78B; Down $3.93B (-25.0%)
    • 2017: Silent
  • Comment – Boomers are still the biggest spenders but are subject to big $ swings with their 4th consecutive flip.
• Area Type – Rural gave back all of their 2017 gains and flipped from 1^st to last.
  • Winner – Suburbs >2500 – Pet Food Spending: $12.97B; Up $0.78B (+6.4%)
    • 2017: Rural
  • Loser – Rural – Pet Food Spending: $3.70B; Down $2.47B (-40.0%)
    • 2017: Central City
  • Comment – Areas over 2500 pop. spent more, +$0.88B. Areas under 2500 spent a lot less, -$3.15B
• Occupation – A dual flip from 2017.
  • Winner – Self-Employed– Pet Food Spending: $2.41B; Up $0.78B (+47.6%)
    • 2017: Blue-Collar Workers
  • Loser – Blue-Collar Workers – Pet Food Spending: $4.64B; Down $3.58B (-43.6%)
    • 2017: Self-Employed
  • Comment – This is where the spending flip becomes better defined. Blue-Collar Workers clearly backed down from their 2017 food upgrade, which was a likely reaction to the FDA warning. At the same time, the Self-Employed grew in number and took the opposite route by spending significantly more per CU on Pet Food.
• Age – The 65>74 yr olds are truly a surprise winner.
  • Winner – 65>74 yrs – Pet Food Spending: $4.80B; Up $0.75B (+18.5%)                  
    • 2017: 55>64 yrs
  • Loser – 55>64 yrs – Pet Food Spending: $6.73B; Down $03.51B (-34.3%)
    • 2017: <25 yrs
  • Comment: The 55>64-yr olds flipped from 1^st to last but all groups from 35>64 spent less. However, the older and younger groups spent more. The result was that Pet Food spending became more balanced in terms of age.
• Housing – The unusual growth from renters came from both younger and older groups.
  • Winner – Renters – Food: $6.69B; Up $0.74B (+12.4%)
    • 2017: Homeowners w/o Mtge
  • Loser – Homeowners w/o Mtge – Food: $7.13B; Down $3.06B (-30.0%)
    • 2017: Homeowners w/Mtge
  • Comment – Homeowners w/o Mtge flipped from first to last but the decrease didn’t come from Retirees. Their spending was up. It likely came from Baby Boomers who have paid off their home but are still working.
• # Earners – No Earner, Singles were the only group to increase CU spending on Pet Food.
  • Winner –– No Earner, Single – Pet Food Spending: $2.28B; Up $0.64B (+38.8%)
    • 2017: 1 Earner, 2+ CU
  • Loser – 1 Earner, 2+ CU – Pet Food Spending: $7.12B; Down $1.51B (-17.5%)
    • 2017: 2 Earners
  • Comment – 1 Earner, 2+ CUs flipped from biggest increase to biggest decrease but still remained the top performing group. This happened often in 2018 and shows just how big of a lead that they had on other groups.
• Race/Ethnic – A dual flip as Hispanics moved to the top with a 29% spending increase.
  • Winner –– Hispanic – Pet Food Spending: $24.01B; Up $0.62B (+29.3%)
    • 2017: White, Not Hispanic
  • Loser – White, Not Hispanic – Pet Food Spending: $2.74B; Down $2.93B (-10.9%)
    • 2017: Hispanic
  • Comment – The U.S. is slowly becoming more racially/ethnically diverse. In 2014 White, Not Hispanics were 70.2% of U.S. CUs. In 2018 their share was down slightly to 69.0%. This group is by far the biggest spender in every Pet Industry Segment. However, they have their smallest share in Food, and it is slowly shrinking. In 2014 it was 86.7%. In 2018 it was down to 83.2%. Since it is a necessity, Food spending is one indicator of Pet ownership. Pet Ownership by Hispanics is relatively high. It may be increasing in Asian American and African American CUs.
• CU Composition – A dual flip, but Married Couple Only is still the performance leader.
  • Winner – Married, Oldest Child <6 – Food: $1.16B; Up $0.56B (+93.4%)
    • 2017: Married, Couple Only
  • Loser – Married, Couple Only – Food: $9.06B; Down $2.05B (-18.4%)
    • 2017: Married, Oldest Child <6
  • Comment – In 2017 Married Couples with the oldest child <6 was the only segment in this category to have a decrease. In 2018, they were on top. However, Married, Oldest Child 6>17, Single Parents and Singles also spent more. Every other group spent less. It was an unusual year in Pet Food spending.
• Education – Another dual flip and more evidence of the reversal of the 2017 upgrade.
  • Winner – Assoc. Degree – Food Spending: $3.4B; Up $0.52B (+18.0%)
    • 2017: HS Grad w/some College
  • Loser – HS Grad w/some College – Food Spending: $5.67B; Down $3.44B (-37.7%)
    • 2017: Assoc. Degree
  • Comment – Those with an Associate’s degree, College Grads, High School Grads and even those who didn’t finish High School all spent more on Food, but they couldn’t overcome the huge drop by HS Grads with some College.
• # in CU – A final dual flip, but once again the loser remains the best performing segment in the category.
  • Winner – 3 People – Pet Food Spending: $4.67B; Up $0.47B (+11.2%)
    • 2017: 2 People
  • Loser – 2 People – Pet Food Spending: $12.28B; Down $2.53B (-17.1%)
    • 2017: 3 People
  • Comment: 3 person CU’s and singles were the only sizes with increased Food spending. This means that married couples with only 1 child had the biggest increase in pet food spending in 2018.
• Region – Last year every region spent more. This year they all spent less.
  • Winner – West – Pet Food Spending: $6.78B; Down $0.14B (-2.1%)
    • 2017: Midwest
  • Loser – South – Pet Food Spending: $10.73B; Down $1.16B (-9.7%)
    • 2017: South
  • Comment – Although The South kept the “loser” position, the fact that every region spent less shows the widespread impact of the 2018 Pet Food spending reversal.

We’ve now seen the “winners” and “losers” in terms of increase/decrease in Pet Food Spending $ for 12 Demographic Categories. The results strongly reinforce our initial observations of a spending reversal by the groups that largely drove the $4.6B increase in 2017. Since the spending drop occurred in the second half, it is likely a reaction to the FDA warning about grain free dog food made in July of 2018. In this situation there were a number of segments with a huge decrease in spending. However, we have identified 11 of the 12 “winning” segments which unsuccessfully tried to reverse the $2.27B decrease in Pet Food Spending. They were not alone. Not every good performer can be a winner. Some “hidden” segments should also be recognized for performance. They don’t win an award, but they get…

HONORABLE MENTION

The spending lift by the <25 group may be the most significant because it signals increased involvement with pets. The $30>39K income group reflects the positive performance by Retirees. Asian Americans’ spending was up 35.5% which is a great sign as this group has the lowest percentage of pet ownership. Single Parents rarely win any spending awards. Their 13.7% increase deserves recognition. Also, the “bosses” generally get the credit, but the Tech/Sales/Clerical workers spent $0.54B more in 2018. Finally, the Millennials had the biggest increase, but the Gen Xers weren’t far behind, +$0.61B. The drop in Pet Food Spending was widespread, but 2018 wasn’t all bad news. 43 of 92 demographic segments, 46.7% spent more on Food.

Summary

As we have noted, the Pet Food spending drop in 2018 was unexpected as it broke a pattern of 2 years up followed by 1 year of flat or declining sales which has been going on since 1997. This trendy nature increased with the first significant move to premium foods in 2004. The Melamine crisis in 2007 intensified the pattern and resulted in a series of “waves” which became a tsunami with the introduction of Super Premium Foods.

The 25 to 34 yr old Millennials were the first to “get on board” with Super Premium in the second half of 2014. In 2015 a substantial portion of consumers began to upgrade to this new trend. The result was a $5.4B spending increase. These consumers were generally more educated, often worked as managers or were self-employed and had higher incomes. One negative was that they often paid for the upgrade by spending less in other segments. In 2016 the anticipated drop in spending happened. The “upgraded” group began value shopping for their new food and found great deals online and in some stores. They spent some of the $3.0B “saved” Food dollars in other segments but not enough to make up for the drop in Food. Total Pet Spending was down $0.46B. In 2017 we were ready for a new “wave”. Thanks to a very price competitive market, what we got was a deeper penetration of Super Premium foods. This group of upgraders was mostly middle-income, not college educated and often Blue-collars workers. Most also were in the 55>64 year old age group. The result was a $4.6B increase but this time there was no trading $ with other segments.

That brings us to 2018. We expected a small annual increase in Pet Food and spending in the first half was up $0.25B. Then the bottom dropped out as spending fell $2.51B in the second half. The timing of this spending drop, in correlation with the FDA warning on grain free is too close to be a coincidence. When we got the 2018 data, we began an in depth demographic analysis of Pet Food Spending. It turns out that the big decrease in pet food spending was coming directly from the groups who had fueled the big 2017 increase. They had obviously backed off from the previous year’s upgrade “en masse”. Fear for their pet’s welfare is the obvious reason for such an abrupt turnaround. This is especially true since the primary motivator for pet parents is the health and well-being of their pet children, especially regarding nutrition.

As you have seen from our analysis, it certainly caused turmoil in the segment as 71% of the demographic groups with the biggest change in Pet Food $ switched from first to last or vice versa from their position in 2017. However, It wasn’t all turmoil and bad news. 47% of 92 democratic segments increased pet food spending. They may have upgraded even more, added supplements or wanted more facts on grain free. The other good news is that the average gap between the best and worst performing segments in 12 categories fell by 23%. Pet Food spending is becoming even more demographically balanced in America. We’ll see what 2019 brings. Are we starting a new pattern or maybe no pattern?

Finally – 2018’s “Ultimate” Pet Food Spending CU is 2 people – a married couple, alone. They are 55>64 years old. They are White, but not of Hispanic origin. At least one has an advanced college degree and they both work in their own business. They earn $150 to $200K but are still paying for a mortgage on their house in a small suburb in the Midwest.

 

 

Total Pet Spending in the U.S. reached $78.60B in 2018, a $1.47B (1.9%) increase from 2017. These figures and others in this report are calculated from data in the annual Consumer Expenditure Survey conducted by the US BLS. 2018 was a much more sedate year for the industry after the spectacular lift in 2017. However, it was only calm on the surface. When you look at each segment there was a certain amount of turmoil. The FDA warning on grain free dog food, the new tariffs on supplies and increased inflation in Veterinary all had a negative impact on spending in the second half. The good news was a record surge in Services Spending. 2018 also saw a $6.5B drop in spending by the Baby Boomers. Fortunately, other groups, especially the younger ones, stepped up. The situation certainly deserves a closer look.

The first question is, “Who is spending most of the $78+ billion dollars?” There are of course multiple answers. We will look at Total Pet Spending in terms of 10 demographic categories. In each category we will identify the group that is responsible for most of the overall spending. Our target number was to find demographic segments in each category that account for 60% or more of the total. To get the finalists, we started with the biggest spending segment then bundled related groups until we reached at least 60%.

Knowing the specific group within each demographic category that was responsible for generating the bulk of Total Pet $ is the first step in our analysis. Next, we will drill even deeper to show the best and worst performing demographic segments and finally, the segments that generated the biggest dollar gains or losses in 2018.

In the chart that follows, the demographic categories appear in ranked order by Total Pet market share from highest to lowest. We also included their share of total CU’s (Financially Independent Consumer Units) and their performance rating. Performance is their share of market vs their share of CU’s. This is an  important number, not just for measuring the impact of a particular demographic group, but also in measuring the importance of the whole demographic category in Spending. These are all large groups with a high market share. A performance score over 120% means that this demographic measure is extremely important in generating increased Pet Spending. I have highlighted the 6 groups with 120+% performance. (I rounded up for the 35>64 age group).

The groups are the same as in 2017, but some rankings have changed. Everyone Works and Education gained in share ranking and performance. Suburban gained share but not rank. The performance of the other 7 groups fell, indicating more balanced spending. Homeowners, All Wage & Salaried, Married Couples and 35>64 yr olds fell in share ranking.

1. Race/Ethnic – White, not Hispanic (86.3%) This is the 2^nd largest group and accounts for the vast majority of Pet Spending. Their performance rating fell slightly to 125%. This category now officially ranks #5 in terms of importance in Pet Spending demographic characteristics but they are in a virtual tie for 3rd place with 2 other groups. Although this demographic, along with age, are 2 areas in which the consumers have no control. Spending disparities are enhanced by differences in other areas like Income, CU Composition and homeownership. There are also apparently cultural differences which impact Pet Spending. Asian Americans are first in income, education and spending but last in Pet Spending as a percentage of total spending – 0.33% vs a national average of 0.98%.
2. # in CU – 2+ people (80.9%) It just takes two. Singles still have the lowest performance of any group, but they gained ground in 2018. This gain along with a drop in spending by 2 person CU’s caused the overall performance of 2+ CUs to drop to 114.7%. However, 4 person CUs also gained so only singles and 5+ person CU perform under 100%.
3. Housing – Homeowners (79.8%) Controlling your “own space” has long been a key to larger pet families and more pet spending. However, 2018 was a good year for renters. Homeowners had the biggest drop in both share and performance. Their 125.7% performance dropped them to 3rd place in terms of importance for increased pet spending. The homeownership rate for Millennials is substantially lower than previous generations when they were the same age but it is increasing. We also saw an impact from more older Americans “downsizing”.
4. Income – Over $50K (74.9%) Although Pet Parenting is common in all income groups, money does matter. With a performance rating of 138.9%, CU income is the single most important factor in increased Pet Spending. Their performance decreased from 141.6% in 2017. This was driven by a spending drop in the $50>99K range, along with a strong lift from those earning $30>49K.
5. Education – Associates Degree or Higher (69.5%) Income generally increases with education level and so does Pet spending. Education can also be a key factor in recognizing the value in product improvements, like super premium foods. In 2018 this higher educated group spent $4.9B more on their pets and moved up from 7^rd to 5^th in share of pet spending. This move also reflects the spending lift by the younger groups as they are generally more educated than Boomers+. At the same time High School Grads with some College substantially decreased their Pet spending so the performance of the Associates Degree and More group moved up from 120.1% to 127.5% – from 6th to 2nd place. This moves Education back to the forefront in terms of importance in Pet Spending.
6. Occupation – All Wage & Salary Earners (64.4%) – Pet ownership is widespread across all segments in this group. After a big lift In 2017, the blue-collar workers radically cut back their pet spending, especially on Food. All Wage & Salary Earners’ performance fell to 105.4%, by far the lowest of any group. It remains below 110% because there is still a big spending (and income) disparity within the group and the self-employed also had a great year!
7. # Earners – “Everyone Works” (63.8%) This is a composite of CU’s, regardless of size, where all adults are employed. This group’s ranking in share of overall pet spending jumped from 9^th to 7^th. Their performance increased from 108.2% to 110.3%. Younger CUs have more earners. You see one sign of their increased 2018 Pet $ right here.
8. Age – 35>64 (63.2%) This group’s share of spending fell from 6^th to 8^th because the 55>64 yr olds spent $4B less. The 35>54 group couldn’t quite make it up. The 65+ and under 35 groups also had a good year which pushed the 35>64 yr old’s performance down from 123.2% to 119.5%. However, they are still ranked 6th in overall importance.
9. CU Composition – Married Couples (62.2%) With or without children, two people, committed to each other, is an ideal situation for Pet Parenting. In 2018, primarily due to a drop in spending by married couples only CU’s, this group fell from 8^th to 9^th in share of spending. A big spending lift by singles also contributed to a decrease in performance from 128.1% to 125.2%. which dropped them from 3rd to 4th in importance.
10. Area – Suburban (61.0%) Homeownership is high and they have the “space” for pets. Their share of pet spending increased from 59.8%. Their performance also increased from 107.6 to 110.0%. The gain in share and performance was due to a great year for Suburbs over 2500 pop. All areas under 2500, both rural and suburban had a bad year. Rural areas were down $3.23B which drove Suburban performance up, despite a $2.7B increase by Center Cities.

Total Pet Spending is a sum of the spending in all four industry segments. The “big demographic spenders” listed above are determined by the total pet numbers. Although the share of spending and performance of these groups may vary between segments, every one of them generates a minimum of 58.2% of the spending in every segment. As we analyze individual segments, some of the groups will change to better reflect where most of the business is coming from.

The group performance is a very important measure. Any group that exceeds 120% indicates an increased concentration of the business which makes it easier for marketing to target the big spenders. Although Income over $50K is the clear winner, there are other strong performers. The high performance in 6 groups also indicates the presence of segments within these categories that are seriously underperforming. These can be identified and targeted for improvement.

Now, let’s drill deeper and look at 2018’s best and worst performing segments in each demographic category.

Most of the best and worst performers are just who we would expect and there are only 5 that are different from 2017. Changes from 2017 are “boxed”. We should note:

• Income is very important, which is shown by the 221.5% performance. All income groups over $70K have 100+% performance. However, there was also radically improved performance from the $30>49K group.
• Generation – Baby Boomers fell from the top spot for the first time since… However, the Gen Xers stepped up.
• Age – It was a youth movement. The 45>54 yr olds took over the lead from the 55>64 yr old Boomers and the under 25 group escaped the bottom to be replaced by the oldest Americans.
• Occupation – After a 1 year break, the high income Self-Employed Group moved back to the top.
• CU Composition – Although the performance of Married Couple Only fell, they are the winner for a 3rd consecutive year. Married w/children improved performance, but the big news is Singles moved up and out of the loser spot.

Except for the move from Boomers to GenX, there was little change in the “players”, so most expected winners are still doing well. In the next section we’ll look at the segments who literally made the biggest difference in spending in 2018.

We’ll “Show you the money”! This chart details the biggest $ changes in spending from 2017.

Now we will truly see the difference between 2018 and 2017. There are 24 Winners and Losers. 2 Losers and 1 Winner are repeats but 13 segments (54%) actually switched from the biggest increase to the biggest decrease or vice versa.

• Generation – The Boomer Bust had a widespread impact and the negatives were often incredibly big numbers.
  • Winner – Gen X – Pet Spending: $25.15B; Up $3.81B (+17.9%)
    • 2017: Baby Boomers
  • Loser – Baby Boomers – Pet Spending: $29.61B; Down -$6.48B (-18.0%)
    • 2017: Silent Generation
  • Comment – It took the contribution of many segments to generate overall positive numbers for 2018.
• Housing – Homeowners w/Mtge, the biggest segment in this category, won for the first time since 2014.
  • Winner – Homeowner w/Mtge – Pet Spending: $42.92B; Up $3.29B (+8.3%)
    • 2017: Homeowner w/o Mtge
  • Loser – Homeowner w/o Mtge– Pet Spending: $19.81B; Down -$3.37B (-14.6%)
    • 2017: Homeowner w/Mtge
  • Comment – Winner and loser flipped. W/O Mtge group was driven down by older workers with paid off homes.
• Area Type – Central City led the way in the movement to Urbanize Total Pet Spending – another flip.
  • Winner – Central City – Pet Spending: $23.59B; Up $2.66B (+12.7%)
    • 2017: Rural
  • Loser – Rural – Pet Spending: $7.05B; Down -$2.99B (-29.8%)
    • 2017: Central City
  • Comment – Areas under 2500 population – down -$3.23B. Areas over 2500 – up $4.7B.
• Education – HS Grads with some College gave back 88% of their 2017 gain and flipped from winner to loser.
  • Winner – BA/BS Degree – Pet Spending: $25.13B; Up $2.63B (+11.7%)
    • 2017: HS Grad w/some College
  • Loser – HS Grad w/some College – Pet Spending: $12.99B; Down -$3.47B (-21.1%)
    • 2017: Assoc. Degree
  • Comment – The BA/BS group led the way but groups with at least an Associate degree were up $4.87B. Higher Education, which generally generates higher income, has moved back up in importance in Total Pet Spending.
• Age – The 55>64 yr olds flipped again, but this time it was from winner to loser.
  • Winner – 35>44 yrs – Pet Spending: $14.46B; Up $2.31B (+19.0%)
    • 2017: 55>64 yrs
  • Loser – 55>64 yrs – Pet Spending: $17.50B; Down $3.95B (-18.4%)
    • 2017: <25 yrs
  • Comment: The 55>64 yr olds stood alone as every other age group increased their Total Pet spending.
• Income – No repeats or flips here but the over $150K group was up $3.12B
  • Winner – $150 to $199K – Pet Spending: $9.12B; Up $1.96B (+27.4%)
    • 2017: $100 to $149K
  • Loser – Under $30K – Pet Spending: $9.47B; Down -$1.44B (-13.2%)
    • 2017: $30 to $39K
  • Comment – Although the increase was definitely skewed towards higher incomes, it was a roller coaster ride. Over $100K – Up $3.45B; $50>99K – Down -$1.54B; $30>49K – Up $1.0B; Under $30K – Down -$1.44B
• Occupation – Another dual flip between the winner and the loser and we’re back to a more “expected” outcome.
  • Winner –– Self-Employed – Pet Spending: $7.24B; Up $1.83B (+33.8%)
    • 2017: Blue Collar Workers
  • Loser – Blue-Collar Workers – Pet Spending: $11.84B; Down -$2.77B (-18.9%)
    • 2017: Self-Employed
  • Comment – In 2017 Blue-Collar workers were the big movers. In 2018 they gave back 64% of their gain. In 2018 Self-employed workers gained 4% in CUs and 28% in Income and spent some of the extra $ on their pets.
• CU Composition – Married Couples only, the perennially best performing segment, flipped from winner to loser.
  • Winner –– Singles – $14.99; Up $1.64B (+12.2%)
    • 2017: Married, Couple Only
  • Loser – Married, Couple Only – $24.58B; Down -$1.72B (-6.5%)
    • 2017: Married Oldest Child <6
  • Comment – In 2018 there were 2 choices for increased pet spending. You needed to be single or a married couple with children of any age. Every other CU composition segment spent less.
• # in CU – This dual winner/loser flip is mind blowing and likely unprecedented.
  • Winner – 1 Person – Pet Spending: $14.99B; Up $1.64B (+12.2%)
    • 2017: 2 People
  • Loser – 2 People – Pet Spending: $33.36B; Down -$1.96B (-5.6%)
    • 2017: 1 Person
  • Comment: In a “normal” year 2 people is the magic number. In 2018 the rules changed. 1, 3 or 4 person CUs spent more. 2 and 5+ person CUs spent less. I guess this shows that married couples are “limited” to 2 children.
• Region – The Midwest held on to the winners spot in 2018.
  • Winner – Midwest – Pet Spending: $17.76B; Up $1.32B (+8.0%)
    • 2017: Midwest
  • Loser – Northeast – Pet Spending: $13.85B; Down -$0.97B (-6.6%)
    • 2017: West
  • Comment – Only the Northeast spent less. The other regions had a combined increase of $2.44B.
• # Earners – 1 Earner, 2+ CUs went from Winner to Loser. More earners usually means more income and spending.
  • Winner – 2 Earners – Pet Spending: $31.13B; Up $0.89B (+2.9%)
    • 2017: 1 Earner, 2+ CU
  • Loser – 1 Earner, 2+ CU – Pet Spending: $16.82B; Down -$1.23B (-6.8%)
    • 2017: No Earner, Single
  • Comment – CUs where everyone works were up $2.34B. Apparently the only situation that the # of earners didn’t matter in 2018 was for Singles – No Earner, Up $0.85B; 1 Earner, Up $0.79B.
• Race/Ethnic – Same Winner & Loser. White, Not Hispanics account for 86% of Pet $, but only 48% of the increase.
  • Winner – White, Not Hispanic – Pet Spending: $67.86B; Up $0.71B (+1.1%)
    • 2017: White, Not Hispanic
  • Loser – Asian American – Pet Spending: $1.51B; Down -$0.11B (-6.9%)
    • 2017: Asian American
  • Comment – Only Asian Americans spent less. Hispanics and African Americans spent a total of $0.86B more.

We’ve now seen the best overall performers and the “winners” and “losers” in terms of increase/decrease in Total Pet Spending $ for 12 Demographic Categories. Not every good performer can be a winner but some of these “hidden” segments should be recognized for their outstanding performance. They don’t win an award, but they deserve….

HONORABLE MENTION

Let’s start with the Millennials. The Gen Xers were the best performers and had the biggest increase, but the Millennials were not far behind with a $3.4B increase. You also see the impact of this youth “movement” in other honorees. The Under 25 group is officially getting in the Pet Parenting game with a 41% spending increase. Married with Children CUs had a $2.4B spending increase but the biggest lift, +45%, came from those with the youngest children and probably younger parents. Homeowners, with and without mortgages had a net spending drop of -$0.08B. Without Renters, the industry would have had no increase in Total Pet $. Renters are also more likely to be younger but there is also a growing number of downsizing older Americans in this segment.

College Grads get all the accolades. However, in 2018 the Associates Degree group was up $1.75B (+22.4%) with 111% performance. In Occupation, it is all about Managers or Self-Employed. The regular white collar workers had a $1.64B increase with 103% performance. Without the contribution of these 2 groups, 2018 Total Pet Spending was down.

Summary

Pet spending increased $12.8B (19.9%) from 2014 to 2017. It was primarily driven by the movement to upgrade to Super Premium Food, but it did not come easy. Value shopping, especially on the internet, and trading $ between segments created turmoil in the industry. Furthermore, 77% of the increase came in 2017. That brings us to 2018.

In 2018, the spending increase was minor, $1.47B (1.9%). This bland increase included a $2.3B drop Pet Food and a $2B record increase in Services. There were also outside factors at work. The FDA warning regarding grain free dog food and added tariffs to Supplies depressed spending in the second half of the year. However, the biggest change was a $6.5B drop in spending by the Baby Boomers. Fortunately, the other groups, especially the younger ones, stepped up to keep things positive but there were some changes in the spending demographics. The demographic groups responsible for most of Total Pet Spending were the same as those in 2017. However, there were changes in their spending share rankings. More Earners and Higher Education moved up in rank and performance, while 35>64 yr olds, Married Couples and Wage/Salary earners fell in rank. In fact, the performance of 7 groups fell indicating more balanced spending.

In terms of performance, the most influential demographic big spending groups remained at 6. However, Income now stands alone at the top with the other 5 clearly on a lower tier. Knowing the demographic segments in these categories allows industry participants to more effectively target their best customers and… those most in need of improvement.

The most significant change in the best and worst performing individual demographic segments was Gen Xers replacing Boomers at the top. The biggest changes occurred in $ and there was turmoil. 13 segments (54%) switched from Winner to Loser or vice versa. Overall, the youth movement was probably the key spending trend in 2018 and is reflected in the increased spending by a number of segments – not just age groups, including Center City, renters, singles and married couples with children. As always, to get to the heart of the matter and to more actionable data you must “drill down”. This will become even more apparent as we turn our analysis to the individual industry segments.

But before we go…The “Ultimate” Total Pet Spending Consumer Unit in 2018 consists of 2 people – a married couple, alone. They are in the 45 to 54 age range. They are White, but not of Hispanic origin. At least one of the them has an Advanced College Degree. They have their own business and are doing well  – over $200K. They’re working to pay off their house located in a lovely, small suburb of a metropolitan area with a population of about 3,000,000 in the West.

 

 

In 2018 Total Pet Spending in the U.S. was $78.6B, a $1.47B (1.9%) increase from 2017. This was a huge change from the $9.84B increase in 2017. There were a number of factors behind the smaller increase, including some outside the control of the industry. The FDA warning regarding grain free dog food wreaked havoc in the second half and the new tariffs on supplies flattened spending during that period. Veterinary prices turned up again resulting in a net “no gain” in the amount purchased by consumers. There was also a human factor as a significant number of adult children living with their parents moved out and took their pets with them. The Services segment saved the year with a spectacular increase in spending as consumers finally responded to the convenience of significantly more outlets. Here are the $ changes:

• A -$2.27B (-7.3%) drop in Food
• A $1.22B (+6.6%) increase in Supplies
• A $0.56B (+2.7%) increase in Veterinary
• An unprecedented $1.95B (+28.9%) lift in Services

Let’s see how these numbers blend together at the household (CU) level. In any given week, 27.2 Million U.S. CU’s (1/5) spent money on their Pets – food, supplies, services, veterinary or any combination – down from 28.4M in 2017.

In 2018, the average U.S. CU (pet & non-pet) spent a total of $598.41 on their Pets. This was a small 0.8% increase from the $593.63 spent in 2017. However, this doesn’t “add up” to a 1.9% increase in Total Pet Spending. With additional data provided from the US BLS, here is what happened.

• 1.1% more CU’s
• Spent 6.4% more $
• 5.3% less often

If 67% of U.S. CU’s are pet parents, then their annual CU Total Pet Spending was $893.15. Now, let’s look at the recent history of Total Pet Spending. The rolling chart below provides a good overview. (Note: All numbers in this report come from or are calculated by using data from the US BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys – The 2016>2018 Totals include Veterinary Numbers from the Interview survey, rather than the Diary survey due to high variation)

• In 2015, the Food upgrade began, but early in the year consumers were trading $ in other segments to pay for it.
• In 2016, they were intensely value shopping for super premium foods. They started spending some of this saved money on Supplies and Veterinary Services, but not quite enough as spending fell slightly for the year.
• In 2017, spending took off in all but Services, especially in the 2nd half. Consumers found more $ for their Pets.
• In 2018 a spectacular lift in Services overcame the FDA issue in Food, tariffs on Supplies and inflation in Veterinary.

Now we’ll look at some Demographics. First, 2018 Total Pet Spending by Income Group

Only CU’s with an income over $100K increased Total Pet Spending and most of the increase came from $150K+.

Nationally: · Total Pet: ↑$1.47B   · Food: ↓$2.27B  · Supplies: ↑$1.22B  · Services: ↑$1.95B  · Veterinary: ↑$0.56B

• < $70K – (59.7% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $383.10, -2.7%; Total $: $29.88B, ↓$1.49B (-4.8%) from …
  • Food ↓$1.53B
  • Supplies ↑$0.07B
  • Services ↑$0.47B
  • Vet ↓$0.50B

Money matters a lot to this group, especially to those on the low end. They were quick to dial back Food spending after the FDA warning. They also cut Veterinary spending and Supplies $ were essentially flat. However, the convenience of more readily available Services appealed to this group too.

• >$70K – (40.3% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $914.90, +0.4%; Total $: $48.72B, ↑$2.96B (+6.5%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.74B
  • Supplies ↑$1.15B
  • Services ↑$1.49B
  • Vet ↑$1.05B

This group continues to grow, up 6.1% in 2018. This accounted for almost all of their spending increase. They also show that income remains the single biggest factor in Pet Spending. 40% of U.S. CUs spent 62% of Total Pet $. Although they too spent less on Food, without them, Total Pet $ would have been down $1.5B.

• < $30K – (28.7% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $259.13, -9.5%; Total $: $9.47B, ↓$1.44B (-13.2%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.64B
  • Supplies ↓$0.05B
  • Services ↑$0.011B
  • Vet ↓$0.77B

This lowest income group demonstrated their price sensitivity in 2018. However, even they managed to eke out a small increase in Services spending.

• $30>$70K – (31.0% of CUs); CU Pet Spending: $493.91, +0.2%; Total $: $20.41B, ↓$0.06B (-0.3%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.89B
  • Supplies ↑$0.11B
  • Services ↑$0.46B
  • Vet ↑$0.27B

This low to middle income group is by necessity price sensitive, but is also committed to their pets. They  dialed back Food $. However, they had a strong increase in both Service Segments and a little in Supplies.

• $70>$99K – (14.5% of CUs); CU Pet Spending: $670.87, -3.9%; Tot $: $12.92B, ↓$0.49B (-3.6%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.69B
  • Supplies ↓$0.16B
  • Services ↑$0.13B
  • Vet ↑$0.24B

This upper middle income group reacted negatively to the situations in Food and Supplies. Pet Services saw a 13% increase and they did ramp up their Veterinary spending by 7%, but it was not enough to compensate.

• $100K>$149K– (13.1% of CUs); CU Pet Spend: $874.85, -2.9%; Tot $: $15.34B, ↑$0.32B (+2.2%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.80B
  • Supplies ↑$0.56B
  • Services ↑ $0.38B
  • Vet ↑$0.18B

They were the Star of the income groups in 2015 and 2017. In 2016, they had the worst performance with decreased spending in every segment. They are very responsive to industry trends, especially in Pet Food. They have the money to do what is needed or what they want, but are still very “value” conscious.

• $150K> – (12.7% of CUs); CU Pet Spending: $1238.40, +2.0%; Total $: $20.46B, ↑$3.12B (+18.0%) from…
  • Food ↑$0.75B
  • Supplies ↑$0.75B
  • Services ↑$0.99B
  • Vet ↑$0.6

Money Matters! They are the proof. They are the best performing income group in Total Pet Spending with 12.7% of U.S. Households generating 26.0% of all Pet $. They are also the only income group to increase annual Pet Spending every year since 2014. In fact they have furnished 55% of the Pet Industry’s $14.3B spending increase since 2014. There is more good news. This group is growing. They added 2.5 million CUs in 2018, a 17% increase. In fact their $3.12B was primarily fueled by additional CUs. It does demonstrate that pet spending grows with consumers’ income, especially once you reach the $150K+ level.

Income Recap –  The top 2 drivers in consumer spending behavior are value (quality + price) and convenience. That makes income , especially disposable income, very important. You see this in the huge difference in pet spending behavior at the opposite ends of the income spectrum and the increase/decrease spending dividing line of $100K. This line is somewhat deceptive as there were still values to be had in Veterinary and Supplies that appealed to most groups for much of the year. Plus, all groups responded to the increased convenience in Services. The biggest issue was in Food. The FDA warning about grain free elicited 2 different responses. Many in the <$150K groups dialed their spending back to more traditional foods, but the $150K+ group may have upgraded to even more expensive varieties. The trend to super premium has made income more important to this segment and more susceptible to big swings in spending.

Next let’s look at 2018 Total Pet Spending by Age Group

All groups but 55>64 yr olds spent more but the 35>44 yr olds led the way.

Nationally: · Total Pet: ↑$1.47B   · Food: ↓$2.27B  · Supplies: ↑$1.22B  · Services: ↑$1.95B  · Veterinary: ↑$0.56B

• <25 – (5.8% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $355.36, +37.3%; Total $: $2.79B, ↑$0.81B (+41.0%) from…
  • Food ↑$0.50B
  • Supplies ↑$0.004B
  • Services ↑$0.18B
  • Vet ↑$0.13B

This youngest group stepped up in 2018, but they are the only group to increase Pet $ every year since 2014.

• 25-34 – (16.2% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $489.10, +9.5%; Total $: $10.35B, ↑$0.79B (+8.3%) from…
  • Food ↑$0.20B
  • Supplies ↑$0.30B
  • Services ↑$0.31
  • Vet ↓$0.02B

These older Millennials are just starting their families and careers, so they are prone to trading $ between segments. However, they have shown slow, but steady total pet spending growth since 2015.

• 35-44 – (16.7% of CUs); CU Pet Spending: $659.61, +13.9%; Total $: $14.46B, ↑$2.31B (+19.0%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.05B
  • Supplies ↑$0.56B
  • Services ↑$0.96B
  • Vet ↑$0.84B

This group has the largest families and is in the middle of building their careers. This makes them very sensitive to value. However, they have a growing commitment to their pets. Their Food spending was basically unchanged, but they truly “stepped” up with big increases in the other segments, especially Services and Veterinary.

• 45-54 – (17.5% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $769.35, +5.4%; Total $: $17.73B, ↑$0.56B (+3.3%) from…
  • Food ↓$0.32B
  • Supplies ↑$0.27B
  • Services ↑$0.43B
  • Vet ↑$0.19B

This group has the highest income and now occupies the top spot in Pet Spending. This was their second consecutive annual increase, which hasn’t happened since 2009, when the Boomers owned this group. They did this despite having 2% fewer CUs. Food spending dropped but all other segments were up, especially Services.

• 55-64 – (18.6% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $709.69, -18,1%; Total $: $17.50B, ↓$3.95B (-18.4%) from…
  • Food ↓$3.51B
  • Supplies ↑$0.18B
  • Services ↑$0.03B
  • Vet ↓$0.64B

Here is the problem. These younger Baby Boomers had a huge drop in Food and Veterinary. They are committed to their Pets and react very strongly to changes in the market as is evident in the chart. Whether it is a hot new food trend, value shopping or an FDA warning, they get on board quickly and the “swing” can be $ Billions.

• 65-74 – (14.7% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $587.88, +0.3%; Total $: $11.29B, ↑$0.42B (+3.9%) from…
  • Food ↑$0.75B
  • Supplies ↓$0.09B
  • Services ↑$0.006B
  • Vet ↓$0.24B

This group is growing, +4.2%. Many are retired and now 80% are Baby Boomers. They are careful with their money, but their commitment to their pets is very apparent as 1.05% of their total spending is on their companion animals. They didn’t follow the lead of the younger Boomers and cut back on Pet Food $. They spent 18% more, but they helped pay for it by reducing their CU spending in the Veterinary and Supplies segments.

• 75> – (10.4% of U.S. CUs); CU Pet Spending: $332.53, +9.5%; Total $: $4.48B, ↑$0.52B (+13.0%) from…
  • Food ↑$0.18B
  • Supplies ↔$0.00B
  • Services ↑$0.03B
  • Vet ↑$0.31B

Pet Parenting is more difficult, and money is tight for these oldest Pet Parents, but their commitment is still there. They increased spending in 3 of the 4 industry segments, with significant lifts in Food and Veterinary.

Age Group Recap: The age dividing lines in Total Pet Spending were very clear. The 55>64 year old Baby Boomers had a huge drop in spending which was driven by Food and Veterinary. However, the industry had a positive year due to increases by literally every other group. The younger groups, especially the 35>44 year olds had the biggest lift but the 65+ year olds also contributed a $0.94B increase.

Normally, we now look at the biggest winners and losers in each demographic category. However, this didn’t reflect the true situation in 2018. As we saw in the age group analysis, the “loser” was very defined. However, it took a group effort to produce a positive result. In our final graph, we’ll look at where these demographic spending lines were drawn.

Key Demographic “Dividing Lines” for 2018.

In 2018, 50 of 82 Demographic Segments (61%) spent more on their Pets. Usually, this would produce a strong increase, but the biggest single segment drops were so large that the overall increase was only 1.9%. Let’s look at the specifics:

Generations – Boomers have long been the biggest positive factor in the pet industry. In 2018, their influence turned negative as their spending fell -$6.48B. This affected a huge number of demographic categories. You see this over and over again in the downside entries on the chart. The younger generations led the way up, but in fact all other generations spent more on their pets in 2018 and ultimately overcame the “Boomer Bust”.

Age– The 55>64 yr olds are all Boomers. Every other group spent more, with the 35>44 yr olds leading the way, +$2.81B.

Education – As usual, higher education means higher income, better informed product decisions and more Pet $.

Housing – If you paid monthly for housing, you spent more on pets. 38% of Boomer CUs are homeowners w/no Mtge.

Area – This one goes against the norm. Lower population areas generally spend more on Pets. The 2018 situation reflects the continued urbanization of America, which is being driven both by the younger groups and downsizing older CUs.

Occupation – This demographic clearly reflects the importance of income in Pet spending.

CU Composition – We see the positive influence of both young and old groups here. Singles tend to be at either end of the age spectrum and Married, with children CUs are invariably younger. Married, w/no children CUs usually have “room” for more pet spending, but not in 2018.

CU Size – The usual phrase has been “It just takes 2” and 2 person CUs led the pack in spending. In 2018 it was “Any number but 2.”

Income – Income matters in Pet Spending with big disparities between high and low and a dividing line at $100K in 2018.

# of Earners – # of earners is not quite as important as total income, but it is definitely a factor. The “everyone works” CUs led the upside while 1 earner 2+ CUs, which generally have the greatest financial pressure, had the biggest decrease.

Racial/Ethnic – Hispanics and African Americans had a significantly greater increase in pet spending than the much larger White, not Hispanic group. This goes back to the generational differences, as these minorities are 33% of all Millennial and Gen Xer CUs, but only 22% of Baby Boomers.

Finally: The Pet Industry came out on top in 2018, but just barely. Besides normal concerns and trends, there were unusual outside issues like the FDA warning and tariffs. However, their impact was primarily on Baby Boomers, so the problem was simple. The solution, as we have seen, was not. Fortunately, virtually everyone else stepped up to produce a Pet Spending increase. I don’t know if this trend will continue but it is obviously time to take a deeper look at generational pet spending.

 

 

 

 

Except for 2017, Non-Vet Pet Services has shown consistent growth in recent years. However, in 2018, the performance was spectacular. Spending grew $1.95B to $8.72B, a (+28.9%) increase from 2017. The number of outlets offering Pet Services has been increasing at a rapid rate. It looks like that this commitment really paid off in 2018. In this report we will drill down into the data to see what groups fueled the biggest spending increase in history for this segment. (Note: All numbers in this report come from or are calculated by using data from the US BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys)

Services’ Spending per CU in 2018 was $66.36, up from $52.06 in 2017. (Note: A 2018 Pet CU (67%) Spent $99.04)

More specifically, the 28.8% increase in Total Pet Services spending came as a result of:

• 1.1% more households
• Spending 21.11% more $
• 5.24% more often

The chart below gives a visual overview of recent spending on Pet Services

You can see that spending flattened out for 18 months from mid-2016 through 2017. This was a time when competition was building in the marketplace through an increased number of outlets. Value was available but it didn’t increase the number of users. The existing users just paid less. However, the impact of increased availability and convenience really hit home in 2018. Despite a return to a more normal inflation rate, +2.4%, more people opted to use Pet Services and to do it more often. This generated by far the biggest spending increase in history for this segment, +$1.95B, which came from strong growth in both halves. Now, let’s look at some specific spending demographics. First, by Income Group.

In 2018, all income groups increased spending and the $30>70K group spent 38% more, but 70% of the increase came from $100K+ CUs. Services spending is still driven by income as the $100K+ group, 25.8% of CU’s, spends 59.8% of the $.

• <30K (28.7% of CU’s) – $20.45 per CU (+5.5%) – $0.77B, Up $0.01B (+1.4%) – This segment is getting smaller and money is tight. However, even they managed to eke out an increase in CU spending and overall Services $.
• $30>70K (31.0% of CU’s) – $40.33 per CU (+38.6%) – $1.64B, Up $0.46B (+38.4%) – This group dialed back their spending on Food but they spent the “saved” money on other segments, especially Services.
• $70>100K (14.5% of CU’s) – $57.26 per CU (+14.5%) – $1.09B, Up $0.13B (+13.1%) – They cut back spending on Products and focused on Services and Veterinary. However, their Services spending is still below the 2014 level.
• $100>150K (13.1% of CU’s) – $108.59 per CU (+19.8%) – $1.87B, Up $0.38B (+25.1%) – They cut back on Food $ and focused on the other segments, including a second consecutive strong increase in Services $.
• $150K> (12.7% of CU’s) – $200.45 per CU (+20.2%) – $3.34B, Up $0.99B (+41.8%) – They have long been the driver in Services Spending. After a minor dip in in 2017, they came back with a $1B increase in 2018.

Now, let’s look at spending by Age Group.

Although we had to take the numbers to 3 decimal places, all age groups also spent more on Services in 2018. However, the increase was clearly driven by the <55 groups, especially the 35>44 year olds. Here are the specifics:

• 75> (10.4% of CU’s) – $30.69 per CU (+3.3%) – $0.42B – Up $0.03B (+7.3%) This group has the greatest need for pet services, but money is always an issue. The competitive values made a huge difference in 2017. In 2018 they “got a good price” and significantly ramped up their frequency. 3.9% more CU’s spent 15.7% less $, 22.5% more often.
• 65>74 (14.7% of CU’s) – $64.35 per CU (-3.6%) – $1.243B – Up $0.006B (+0.5%). This group is also very value conscious. They were the only age group to decrease CU Services spending. However, they grew in numbers and increased purchase frequency, so they eked out a small gain. 4.2% more CU’s spent 8.2% less $, 5.0% more often.
• 55>64 (18.6% of CU’s) $66.96 per CU (+2.8%) – $1.64B – Up $0.03B (+1.9%) In 2016 they took over the #1 spot in Services spending. They fell to #3 in 2018. Despite decreasing in CU’s, they basically held their ground while spending in the younger groups exploded. 0.9% less CU’s spent 2.1% more $, 0.7% more often.
• 45>54 (17.5% of CU’s)- $83.24 per CU (+32.1%) – $1.92B – Up $0.43B (+29.2%) This highest income group was the leader in Services spending until 2016. They spent a lot more in 2018, but not enough to beat the new leader, 35>44 yr olds. 2.2% fewer CU’s spent 36.6% more $, 3.3% less often.
• 35>44 (16.7% of CU’s) – $90.81 per CU (+85.4%) – $2.0B – Up $0.96B (+93.3%) Spending fell in 2016. They began to recover in 2017, but spending took off in 2018. The group grew in size. but their income grew even more, +11.3%. Obviously, they spent some of the extra $ on Services. 4.3%, more CU’s spent 73.5% more $, 6.9% more often.
• 25>34 (16.2% of CU’s) – $55.53 per CU (+35.2%) – $1.18B – Up $0.31B (+35.3%) In recent years this group of Millennials focused first on upgrading Food and then Supplies and Veterinary. During this time, Services’ spending has been essentially flat. In 2018 it was Services’ “turn” as 0.9% less CU’s spent 10.7% more $, 22.2% more often.
• <25 (5.8% of CU’s) – $42.19 per CU (+133.4%) – $0.32B – Up $0.18B – (+133.3%) With increases in every segment, this small, youngest group became a “player” in 2018. The same # of CU’s spent 137.5% more $, 1.8% less often.

Finally, let’s take a look some other key demographic “movers” behind the 2018 Pet Services Spending “Explosion”

The Services spending increase was very widespread. Overall, 72 of 82 total segments (88%) spent more. As you can see from the chart, 6 of 12 demographic categories had no segments that spent less on Services in 2018.  This included:

• Racial/Ethnic Groups
• Education Levels
• Age Groups
• Regions
• CU Sizes
• CU Compositions

The decreases were also small. The average drop was -$0.08B, driven by Boomers and Retirees who each fell -$0.17B.

Pet Services is the most discretionary of all the Industry Segments, so income is the most important factor in spending. Although the spending lift was widespread across income groups in 2018, the biggest driver was the $100K+ CU’s. This dependence on income is reinforced by some of the winners in our chart above, including:

• Managers & Professionals
• $150K+ Incomes
• 2 Earners
• College Grads

We also see key evidence of the other big Services Spending driver – younger groups, especially Gen Xers.

• Gen Xers
• 35>44 yr-olds
• Singles (A “rare” winner in any segment)

On the upside there were some of the “usual suspects”:

• White, Not Hispanic
• Center City – pet services began here
• 2 People – the biggest pet spenders

On the downside, here are 5 groups with decreased spending that have a common thread:

• Retirees
• 2+ CU, No Earner
• Homeowner w/o Mtge
• $30>39K Income (avg for retirees)
• Baby Boomers – A specific subgroup of Boomers drove the decreases

For the younger Baby Boomers Pet Services’ spending was basically flat, +$0.03B. It is the older Boomers, specifically those who have retired, that drove most of the few demographic spending decreases in the Services Segment.

2018 was a year like no other in the history of Pet Services Spending, To put the $1.95B increase into perspective, the previous biggest gain was +$0.8B in 2009. In fact, total Spending for the Services segment didn’t even break the $2 Billion barrier until 1999.

So, what caused this eruption in spending? We saw the impact in 2018, but it actually has been building for a few years. In an effort to counteract the impact of the internet and the mass market, more and more pet outlets began offering Pet Services. Afterall, “You can’t get your dog groomed online”. “One Stop Shopping” is always a great draw for consumers. Retailers began applying this to Pet Products and Services. Convenience…which included a rise in mobile grooming.

The “movement” didn’t show immediate positive results. We saw some turmoil in 2017, as Services Spending actually fell -$0.07B, quite a rarity. The increased number of outlets caused some pricing pressure. Consumers are always looking for a good deal. In 2017 they found it. It didn’t change their overall behavior or spending frequency, They just paid less.

However, in 2018 the convenience message finally hit home across the Market. Significantly more consumers began using Pet Services for the first time or more often. We’ll see if the Segment can maintain this new level.

 

 

 

In 2018 The U.S. Pet Industry had a year that can best be described as a mixed bag. Total spending increased to $78.6B, up $1.47B (+1.9%). Supplies and Veterinary had modest increases, while the Services Segment had the biggest growth in history. The big downside was that the Food Segment gave back half of the $ gain made in 2017. Here are the specifics:

• Pet Food – $28.85B; Down $2.27B (-7.3%)
• Pets & Supplies – $19.80B; Up $1.22B (+6.6%)
• Veterinary – $21.23B; Up $0.56B (+1.6%)
• Pet Services – $8.72B; Up $1.95B (+28.9%)

The industry truly is a “sum” of its integral segments and each segment has very specific and often very different buying behavior from the many consumer demographic segments. For this reason, we’re going to analyze each of the industry segments first. This will put the final analysis of Total Pet Spending into better perspective. Note: The numbers in this report come from or are calculated by using data from the current and past US BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys. In 2018, this was gathered by the U.S. Census Bureau from over 42,000 interviews and spending diaries. The final data was then compiled and published by the US BLS.

We will start with the largest Segment, Pet Food (and Treats). In 2018 Pet Food Spending totaled $28.85B in the U.S., a $2.27B (-7.3%) decrease from 2017. This was the second largest decrease in history, trailing only the -$2.99B drop in 2016. It’s interesting that the 4 greatest changes in $, up and down, have all occurred in the last 4 years. The current trend in high priced, super premium foods magnifies the results of any changes in consumer purchasing behavior. As you recall, in earlier research we discovered a distinct, long term pattern in Pet Food Spending. In 2018 we broke that pattern. Take a look at Pet Food Spending since 1997 in full Retail Dollars and adjusted for inflation.

The pattern begins in 1997. Retail Pet Food Spending increases for 2 consecutive years then reaches a plateau year or even drops. There is a notable exception – the period from 2006 to 2010. During this time, there were two traumas which directly impacted the Pet Food Retail market. The first was the Melamine recall, which resulted in radically increased prices as consumers insisted on made in USA products with all USA ingredients. The second affected everyone – the great Recession in 2009. This was the first time that annual U.S. retail spending had declined since 1956. The net result was that the plateau period was extended to include both 2009 and 2010.

Pet Food seems to be driven by short term trends. A new food trend “catches the consumers’ attention” and grows…for 2 years. Then sales plateau or even drop…and we’re on to the next “must have”. The increases have become more pronounced in recent years and the whole situation has gotten even more complicated since 2014. That was the year that Food prices began an extended period of deflation due to an unprecedentedly competitive market.

After consumers choose to upgrade to a more expensive pet food, their #1 priority becomes, “Where can I buy it for less?” The internet entered this battle in a big way and “value shopping” was a major contributing factor in the big spending drop in 2016 and its influence continues to grow.

In 2017, according to the 20-year pattern, we should have been beginning a new trend. There was the expected lift in Pet Food spending but what was the new “must have” type! There were some possible candidates, but nothing stood out. A deeper dive into the data showed that the $4B increase in Pet Food spending in 2017 didn’t come from a new trend. It came from a deeper demographic penetration of Super Premium foods. Value shopping in a highly competitive market, especially on the internet had made Super Premium pet foods more accessible to a broad swath of consumers.

Like Pet Food, human behavior has changed over the years in regard to our pets. In the 90’s, Pet Owners became Pet Parents. Then, we took it a step further after the turn of the century and began truly humanizing our pets, especially our canine children. This movement is very accurately reflected in the evolution of Pet Food. We became increasingly more conscious of fulfilling the health needs of our pets, beginning with the first move to premium foods in 2004. This ramped up considerably after the Melamine scare in 2007. Now consumers read pet food labels, research ingredients and expect their pet foods to meet the same quality standards as the best human foods. We may have moved away from trends to a new standard – an expectation of excellence – nothing else will do.

Although the $ didn’t show it, now It appears that we may have  broken the pet food trend pattern in 2017. We definitely broke it in 2018. Let’s look at some specifics. In 2018, the average U.S. Household (pet & non-pet) spent a total of $219.92 on Pet Food. This was an 8.2% decrease from the $239.66 spent in 2017. This doesn’t exactly “add up” to the 7.3% decrease in total Food Spending. With additional data provided from the US BLS, here is what happened.

• 1.0% More U.S. households
• Spent 4.0% less $
• 4.4% less often

By the way, if 67% of U.S. CU’s are pet parents then their annual Pet Food Spending is $328.24. Let’s look at a rolling history of Pet Food Spending since 2013.

Pet Food Spending fell in 2013 and continued down in the first half of 2014. This corresponds to the beginning of a  general deflation which continued through 2018 in this segment. During deflation, in a “need” category like Food, you don’t buy more, you just spend less. The spectacular lift in Pet Food Spending beginning in the second half of 2014 came from a fundamental change in spending behavior. Consumers began to buy more Super Premium Food and Med/Supplements in Treat form, all of which cost more.

An increasing number of consumers chose to upgrade their Pet Food and spending peaked in 2015. Then spending began to fall in the first half of 2016 and the decline intensified in the second half. At first it appeared that consumers were backing down on the upgrade. As it turns out, they were just applying the #1 driver in their buying behavior since the great recession – price (75%). They began shopping for value and there were plenty of bargains to be found.

In 2017 Pet Food spending registered the second largest increase in history. It was time to begin a new “trend”, but this big lift was unusual. Usually the biggest increase comes in the 2^nd year of a cycle. There also was no clear product focus.

Looking deeper into the data we discovered that it was not a new food trend. It was a deeper demographic penetration of Super Premium. Higher education and higher income have driven recent food trends. However, the highly price competitive market had made these high-priced foods more accessible to Blue Collar workers and those without college degrees. Baby Boomers in these groups, with their strong commitment to their pets, responded in a big way, +$3.8B.

After such a big lift in year 1, the 2018 increase was expected to be small and the first half started out that way, +$0.25B. Then the bottom dropped out in the second half of the year as spending fell -$2.51B, the biggest half year decrease in history. In July of 2018 the FDA issued a warning about the possible connection between DCM and grain free dog food. This was frightening and one suggestion was to move back to standard foods. A coincidence? Let’s look closer.

Before we drill into the spending data let’s look at another source of industry information – Global Pet Expo and SuperZoo. The number and nature of the exhibitors at these shows reflects the trends in the overall market and can even foreshadow things to come. Let’s look at the average exhibitor count for 3 specific Dog and Cat product categories:

1. Food – 2019; Avg: 145 Exhibitors, Up 35.5% since 2014.
2. Treats – 2019; 369 Exhibitors, Up 55.7% since 2014. Now the #1 Product Category.
3. Meds/Supplements & Therapeutic Devices – 2019; 278 Exhibitors, Up 102.9% since 2014. This category now ranks second. Plus, meds/supplements in treat form help drive treat to the top spot.

The growth of the Food and Treat categories reflects the rise of Super Premium. Many new companies joined into the fray, creating a very competitive market. Mergers/acquisitions stabilized the exhibitor count but it’s still competitive.

The growth of the meds/supp. category has been spectacular. Together, these 3 categories reflect the Pet Parents’ absolute number 1 concern – the health and wellbeing of their Pet Children, which starts with the quality of their food.

Now let’s look at some specific 2018 Pet Food Spending Demographics. First, we’ll look at income. Prior to 2014 it was a less dominant factor in Food spending. However, the move to Super Premium has brought it more to the forefront. In 2017, with competitive pricing and the consumers’ commitment to pet health, Super Premium drove spending growth in every major income group. In this chart we will show the annual spending from 2013 through 2018. This will put the 2018 numbers into better perspective .

2018 National Numbers: $219.92 per CU (-8.2%); $28.85B; Down – $2.27B (-7.3%); 2013>2018 – Up $5.89B (+25.7%)

All of these large Income groups, except the over $150K, decreased Pet Food spending in 2018. Prices deflated 0.02% in 2018 which indicates that income is not the major demographic factor in the spending drop. Here are 2018 specifics:

• Under $30K: (28.7% of CU’s) – $121.07 per CU (-9.2%) – $4.26B – Down $0.64B (-7.3%). Obviously, this group is very price sensitive. It is also getting smaller. The number of CU’s was down 3.9% in 2018 and 12.5% since 2013. This decrease masks the true food situation. While their Total Food spending is lower than 2013, their Avg CU spending on food is up 13.6%. They are still committed to their pets.
• $30K>$70K: (31.0% of CU’s) – $202.67 per CU (-8.9%) – $8.55B – Down $0.89B (-9.5%). The spending for this group is actually the closest match to the national pattern. They had the biggest dollar decrease but it gets more interesting when you look deeper. The $30>39K group’s pet food spending was up +$0.95B while the $40>$70K group was down $1.84B, 79% of the total Pet Food Spending decrease.
• $70K>$99K: (14.5% of CU’s) – $270.32 per CU (-13.6%) – $5.28B – Down $0.69B (-11.6%). The Pet Food Spending for this group has been very stable. In 2017, they got “on board” with the Pet Food upgrade but ceded 2/3 of the 2017 increase in 2018.
• $100K>$149K: (13.1% of CU’s) – $285.77 per CU (-19.1%) – $5.18B – Down $0.8B (-13.3%) They have a high income but also large families, so they are very value conscious. Except for the dip in 2014, their spending matches the national pattern. In 2017, they had the largest increase in Pet Food spending. In 2018, they gave half of it back.
• $150K> (12.7% of CU’s) – $346.07 per CU (+5.2%) – $5.57B – Up $0.75B (+15.6%). 92% are college grads so they saw the value of Super Premium food very early in the trend. There is also some hidden turmoil in this segment. The $150>199K segment is up $1.08B, the single biggest lift in the income groups. While $200K> is down

In 2017, the increase in Pet Food spending was widespread across incomes. In fact, groups totaling 84.7% of all U.S. households spent more on Pet Food. In 2018, the decrease was also widespread, as 77.0% of all households spent less on Pet Food. The 2 groups that spent more are widely separated, $30>39K and $150>199K. This indicates that while the reduction in Food spending affected most Americans, it is not directly tied to income.

Now, Spending by Age Group…

2018 National Numbers: $219.92 per CU (-8.2%); $28.85B; Down – $2.27B (-7.3%); 2013>2018 – Up $5.89B (+25.7%)

For Pet Food spending it was essentially a battle. The youngest and oldest were on the plus side while the middle groups spent less. Unfortunately, with the 55>64-year olds leading the way, the downside won.

• 55>64 (18.6% of CU’s) – $269.94 per CU (-34.7%) – $6.73B – Down $3.51B (-34.3%). This group (all Baby Boomers) has been at the forefront of recent major spending swings. In 2015 many of them upgraded to Super Premium. In 2016 this group looked for and found a better price. In 2017 they led a deeper penetration of the upgrade. Now, in 2018 they have given back 2/3 of the gains made since 2014. It’s complicated story but this group was a key to Pet Food spending in 2018.
• 45>54 (17.5% of CU’s) – $255.62 per CU (-3.6%) – $5.89B – Down $0.32B (-5.2%) This group is #1 in income and total CU expenditures. Up until 2015 they were #1 in Pet Food spending. They bought premium food but didn’t fully participate in the 2015 upgrade. They did take advantage of the 2016 discounts and spent less. In 2017, they became more committed to super premium and their Pet Food Spending reached a record high. In 2018 they lost CU’s (-1.6%) and spent slightly less on Pet Food.
• 35<44 (16.7% of CU’s) – $210.56 per CU (-5.6%) – $4.59B – Down $0.05B (-1.2%) They are 2^nd in income and expenditures but have the biggest families. Value shopping is a way of life and their spending pattern tends to be less volatile. They opted in for Super Premium in 2017 and basically held their ground in 2018.
• 65>74 (14.7% of CU’s) – $251.76 per CU (+15.6%) – $4.80B – Up $0.75B (+18.5%). This group is 80% Boomers. They are starting to retire but many are still working (0.7 per CU). They do generally have reduced family responsibilities and turn their attention to their pets, spending 1.05% of total expenditures on their pets.
• 75> (10.4% of CU’s) – $144.89 per CU (+7.7%) – $1.91B – Up $0.18B (+10.2%). Both the effort and the expense of Pet Parenting become issues as we reach 75+. However, they remain committed to their Pets and high quality food.
• 25>34 (16.2% of CU’s) – $182.49 per CU (+8.9%) – $3.82B – Up +$0.2B (+5.5%) In recent years their spending pattern has foreshadowed the overall market for the following year. The indication was that they were first to “buy in” on a new trend – from Super Premium to Value shopping. Let’s hope this continues as their spending was up in 2018 which would indicate spending will be up in the overall market in 2019.
• <25 (5.8% of CU’s) – $135.40 per CU (+69.0%) – $1.12B – Up +$0.5B (+80.2%) The performance of this smallest group was spectacular. This behavior goes beyond pet food. They increased in CU count by 6.6%. Where did all these households come from? These young Millennials were living with their parents. They moved out and took their Pets with them. Now, they are responsible for the pet related expenses, including high quality food. It’s not an equal movement of dollars because these internet connected youths will definitely buy things much cheaper than their parents. However, it undoubtedly contributed to the spending drop by the 55>64-year-old Boomers.

We need to drill deeper. Let’s take a look at the segments with the biggest change in spending in 12 categories. The segments that are outlined “flipped” from 1^st to last or vice versa from 2017. The red outline stayed the same.

2018 was the year of the “flip”. Four of 2017’s biggest losers moved to the top in 2018. The South maintained their position at the bottom. However, every other 2017 demographic category winner became the biggest loser in 2018. This is quite unprecedented. We saw that the spending drop was very widespread across income groups but was much more limited in terms of age – primarily the 55>64-year olds. Looking at the specific demographics we can identify…..

….The biggest “losing” household in Pet Food Spending for 2018.

It is a White, non-Hispanic, Baby Boomer couple living alone. Their last Millennial child finally moved out. They got job training after high school but only one of them still works, in a blue-collar job and earns about $70K. They live in a small community, under 2500 people. They have paid off their home mortgage and are looking forward to retirement.

There were multiple factors behind the drop in Pet Food Spending in 2018. Here are 3 that were definitely impactful:

1. The July 2018 warning by the FDA about a possible link between grain-free dog food and DCM. Although there is no definitive link, many pet parents, especially new converts to grain free, apparently switched back to foods with a standard mixture made by a well-established manufacturer.
2. Value Shopping – This behavior is here to stay, and its impact is noticeably magnified by the internet.
3. Millennials moving out – A Pew research study showed that 34% of 25+ yr old Millennials still lived with their parents. In 2018, Millennials began to move out, gaining over 2 million CU’s. They took their pets with them but now they are responsible for expenses. However, it wasn’t an equal $ swap because they spent less ….on the internet.

2018 was a complex and “trying” year in the Pet Food segment. We broke a spending pattern of 20 yrs. Let’s hope that the 25>34-year old’s record of predicting next year’s market stays true. If so, Pet Food $pending will increase in 2019.